Copyright: 2009
Publisher: Doubleday
ISBN: 978-0-385-51705-8
How can you predict what is going to happen 20, 50 or 100 years from now? Imagine writing a book in 1909 and trying to predict the events of the last 100 years. That is the feat that George Friedman, founder of Stratfor, tries to accomplish in this fascinating book called "The Next 100 Years: A Forecase For The 21st Century". Friedman freely admits that the task is daunting and fraught with pitfalls, however he brings and incredible breadth and depth of understanding to the task. Rather than try to paint a detailed picture of the next 100 years' events, Friedman paints in broad strokes what the geopolitical climate is telling him will happen.
What it is not
This book is not the fortune telling of a modern day seer. Friedman lays no claim on special insight or knowledge that is unavailable to everyone else. He goes to great pain to not put too much detail into his thoughts. If you are looking for a book that will tell you whether to buy stock in a particular green energy company, this book is not for you. If you are trying to figure out which country will have the greatest increase in the value of its currency in the next decade, this book is not for you.
What it is
This book is a wealth of knowledge. Friedman's grasp of history on a global scale is incredible. Instead of getting bogged down in dates and individual events, he takes 50,000 foot view of the historical implications of societies and political entities and their interactions. His analysis of the Eastern European realm is as practical as it is fascinating. He visits the current conflict between the United States and the Islamist Terrorists and touches on the prospect of China remaining a strong world player over the next few decades.
Of course some of the predictions that are closer to our time on the timeline are ones that anyone who follows the news can see. His predictions about Russia and her intentions for the Caucasus seem reasonable given Russia's moves last Fall into Georgia. He ties the obvious into the not so obvious notion of Turkey's rise to power in the region. He makes a reasonable case for the end game in the region, based not only on current events but the historical implications of the cultures involved.
Battle Stars and Civil Wars
One of the portions of the book where Friedman took some liberties (and probably got a little more off base) was his prediction of what war will look like in the future. He surmises that the U.S. will launch "Battle Stars", large manned satellites that will militarize space. In addition he opines that in the future, wars will be dominated by hypersonic aircraft; aircraft capable of flying up to 10 times the speed of sound.
Much of this part of the book sounds a lot like the science fiction I used to read as a kid. Reading about space flight and colonies on the moon (yes, Friedman thinks we will colonize the moon) and other such things was very fascinating as a kid. I was promised that in my lifetime I would be rocketing my way towards space stations orbiting distant stars. Of course as a 37 year old, I don't anticipate ever leaving the earth's atmosphere since I am not an astronaut nor a billionaire.
The final chapter of Friedman's book puts forth a plausible theory regarding Mexico taking back large portions of the Southwest that used to be part of Mexico prior to the mid-1800's. He argues that in the not-too-distant future, America will have to open up the immigration flood-gates in order to supply our demand for labor. I happen to agree with this supposition and it is one of the areas with which I disagree with the Republican Party. Opening up, and even encouraging immigration into this country is a good thing, not a bad thing.
Interestingly, Friedman argues that towards the end of the century this trend of increasing demand for labor (coupled with decreasing population) will reverse, due in large part to the extensive use of robotics. America will begin trying to force Mexican's living in the U.S. to move back to Mexico. By this time however, Friedman believes that the Southwestern U.S. will have become more like Mexico than the U.S. and will likely spark a conflict for which the best solution for the U.S. will be to allow Mexico to have the territory.
Conclusion
I love reading books written by intelligent people and George Friedman is certainly one of them. Anyone who wants a better understanding of the geopolitical world of today should read this book. If you are just interested in a fascinating read of what one person thinks will happen in the next century, you will not be disappointed in reading this book. I ordered this book from Amazon before it was even available and I do not regret the purchase one bit.